天然气何去何从Where Is Natural Gas Headed
我们很快就会知道天然气是会像2012年那样走高,还是像09年那样持续下跌了
原文：Robert Edwards在SeekingAlpha发布的Instablog
翻译：emrick
提及的股票：UGAZ/DGAZ/UNG
前言：我的观点总是和华尔街的交易者们保持一致，然而这一次在我阅读了华尔街一则关于天然气的文章之后我觉得这是很长时间以来他们干的最棒的一次。言归正传，我们回到这篇文章来看看天然气。
2009,2012和2015年天然气都在四月到达支撑，然后上涨。在这三年，天然气的支撑不断被测试然后接着是反弹。我们刚刚完成了长达三个星期的反弹，现在正在接近第二个反弹的边缘（这也是今年的第二次反弹）看看下面的图就知道，我们现在处在一个什么位置。
本周五天然气跌破了一个支撑，但是之后有了一个强势反弹并重新回到了2.8以上。这个让我们觉得下周会有一个继续的反弹，类似09和12年的情况。然而反弹之后的星期(如果有反弹的话)会是一个分水岭。这点Main Street Trading也指出了。2012年我们继续了这个反弹但是09年它biubiubiu的下跌并创造了一个历史新低=。=我最好的猜测：我是觉得重现09年情况的可能性会比较大。12年的时候天然气在第三周和第四周的时候价格比五月份的时候高。但是其实吧，09年和15年的情况比较像，我们在五月的第三周没有达到像12年那样的高点。如果下周NG的价格没有到达3.15，那么我们可能会在八月或者九月到达一个新低。所以NG下周很有可能会挣扎着到达3或者3.15。总结：我上次预测还是挺准的所以这次你们也可以相信我。随着上周五的走势的反转，接下来的一周也可能会同样走强。做好准备吧，在下周清算你所有的UGAZ，然后开始玩DGAZ吧。在回到四月份的低点之前你不会想要重新购买这货。再说一次，下周是你出货最后的时机了。我反正话撂这了，爱信不信(差不多作者就这意思吧)利益相关：上边的话都是我Robert Edwards说的。我有时候会说对有时候会说错，到底听不听我的，你自己决定吧。
We should know soon whether natural gas will head higher like 2012, or keep on falling like it did in ‘09
Original: the Instablog Robert Edwards published on SeekingAlpha
Translated by: emrick
Stocks mentioned: UGAZ/DGAZ/UNG
Foreword: My views have always kept in step with the Wall Street traders, yet this time, after reading a Wall Street piece on natural gas, I think it’s the finest work they’ve turned out in a long while. But back to business: let’s return to this article and take a look at natural gas.
In 2009, 2012 and 2015 alike, natural gas reached support in April and then climbed. In all three years, the support kept being tested, and each test was followed by a rebound. We have just completed a rebound that ran a full three weeks, and are now approaching the edge of a second one (which is also this year’s second rebound). One look at the chart below shows exactly where we stand.This Friday natural gas broke below a support, but then staged a forceful rebound and climbed back above 2.8. That makes us think next week will bring a continuation of the rebound, much like the situations in ‘09 and ‘12. The week after the rebound, however (if there is a rebound), will be a watershed. Main Street Trading has pointed this out too. In 2012 we carried the rebound onward, but in ‘09 it just went biubiubiu straight down and set an all-time low =。=My best guess: I’d say a rerun of the ‘09 scenario is the likelier case. In ‘12, natural gas was priced higher in the third and fourth weeks than it had been in May. But truth be told, ‘09 and ‘15 look rather alike: in the third week of May we never reached a high like ‘12’s. If NG’s price doesn’t reach 3.15 next week, then we may well hit a new low in August or September. So next week NG will most likely be struggling its way toward 3 or 3.15.In sum: My last call was pretty accurate, so you can trust me this time too. With last Friday’s reversal in the price action, the coming week may run just as strong. Get ready: liquidate all your UGAZ next week, then start playing DGAZ. You won’t want to buy this stuff back before it returns to the April lows. Once more: next week is your last window to unload. Anyway, I’ve said my piece; believe it or not as you please (that’s more or less what the author meant, at any rate)Disclosure: Everything above was said by me, Robert Edwards. Sometimes I’m right and sometimes I’m wrong; whether to listen to me is, in the end, your own call.
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