3X天然气我一般这么玩How I Usually Play 3x Natural Gas
最近一直玩Velocityshares的天然气ETN，在亏亏赚赚之中总结出一丢丢经验。贴在这里。
写在前面：本文仅对我个人关于天然气ETN的操作方法进行描述，不构成任何投资的建议。
一般这么玩：入场：我会在对NG看多的时候挑选一个支撑位入场。支撑位的判断这里不展开了，可以在StockTwits上爬文看，也可以在雪球看各种大V发表的言论。当然你也可以自己根据经验判xia断cai，比如我..当然，一个比较通俗的方法就是根据之前的走势去判断，老是在某个位置涨着涨着不涨了，当然就是阻力位啦，反之就是支撑嘛(偷笑止损：当你在做看多操作买入的时候，如果NG不小心跌了（这个情况估计占多数），我会等待它在跌到下一个支撑前，卖出50%的仓位进行止损与现金回收，并在到达下一个支撑时补仓。以便降低持仓的平均价格。当然也有特例，如果跌破较强的支撑，我会直接平仓并等待一个新的入场时机。止盈：玩UGAZ和DGAZ这样的三倍杠杆因为有杠杆损耗，靠的就是快进快出。拿在手上几个月等着它涨到一个较高的价位或者等着回到成本价，最终的结果只能是眼睁睁看着越亏越多最后合股。然后…然后继续亏。我一般会在一个看多操作后等待它来到下一个支撑。要记住NG是基本不会横盘的，如果它真的这么做了，十有八九说明人家要开始跌了。这个时候我一般会选择直接平仓获利走人。如果在突破目标支撑之后仍然看多，或者目标支撑一不小心就被NG甩在身后（这个情况还挺常见），那么建议立刻设置新的止损和止盈价格（根据支撑）然后耐心等待NG接下来的动作。NG这个玩意其实比较难用技术分析，但是跟随支撑进行交易，你会发现买早了和卖早了的情况会减少很多（其实哪只股票不是这样呢Tips：小经验很多，一下子没法全都想起来，先写几条：1）初次建仓，仓位不要超过10%2）如果有必要补仓，仓位不要超过30%3）NG很少直接移动多于5cents而不进行回调，所以超短波段的同学看到这种情况时可以考虑止盈4）当NG只涨1.5到2cents然后回落并创造新低是NG继续变弱的征兆，这个情况可以考虑short一波5）可以根据上涨和下跌的幅度判断NG的走势强弱，这个下次再展开了6）一波上涨之后一般都会有一个2.5cents左右的回调，如果没有则NG一般会继续走高以上是我的一点小经验，说错的概率要远远大于对。各位看官请一定自行实践进行判断。
Lately I’ve been playing VelocityShares’ natural gas ETNs, and through the losing and winning I’ve distilled a tiny bit of experience. Posting it here.
Up front: this post only describes my personal way of trading natural gas ETNs and does not constitute investment advice of any kind.
Here’s how I usually play it: Entry: I pick a support level to enter at when I’m bullish on NG. How to judge support I won’t expand on here; you can trawl the posts on StockTwits, or read what the various big Vs are saying on Xueqiu. Of course you can also judge for yourself from experience (read: guess wildly), me for instance.. And of course, one fairly folksy method is to judge from the earlier price action: if it keeps climbing to a certain spot and then stalling, that’s a resistance level, obviously, and the reverse is support (snickerStop-loss: When you’ve bought in on a bullish play and NG carelessly falls (which I’d guess is the majority of cases), I wait and, before it drops to the next support, sell 50% of the position to stop the loss and recover cash, then buy back in when it reaches that next support. So as to bring down the position’s average price. There are exceptions, of course: if it breaks below a strong support, I close out entirely and wait for a fresh entry. Take-profit: With triple-leveraged plays like UGAZ and DGAZ, leverage decay means the whole game is quick in, quick out. Hold for months waiting for it to climb to some nice high price, or to crawl back to your cost basis, and the only possible ending is watching the losses grow and grow until the reverse split. And then… then you keep losing. After a bullish entry I generally wait for it to reach the next support. Remember, NG basically never trades sideways; if it truly does, nine times out of ten it means the thing is about to start falling. At that point I usually just close the position, take the profit, and walk. If you’re still bullish after it breaks through the target support, or the target support gets left in NG’s dust before you know it (this happens rather a lot), then I suggest immediately setting new stop-loss and take-profit prices (based on support) and waiting patiently for NG’s next move. NG is honestly hard to read with technical analysis, but trade along the supports and you’ll find far fewer cases of buying too early or selling too early (then again, what stock isn’t like that Tips: There are lots of little lessons, too many to recall in one sitting; here are a few for a start: 1) For an initial position, no more than 10% 2) If adding is necessary, no more than 30% total 3) NG rarely moves more than 5 cents without a pullback, so ultra-short swing traders can consider taking profit when they see one 4) When NG rises only 1.5 to 2 cents, then falls back and makes a new low, that’s a sign NG is weakening further; you can consider a short there 5) You can gauge the strength of NG’s move from the size of its rises and falls, but that’s for another day 6) After a leg up there’s usually a pullback of about 2.5 cents; if it doesn’t come, NG will usually keep climbing. The above is my little pile of experience, and the odds that it’s wrong far outweigh the odds that it’s right. Dear readers, please be sure to practice it yourself and judge for yourself.
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